Los problemas de Grecia, vistos por los griegos
Un artículo muy divertido sobre la crisis en Grecia:
Greece is a country with rich, underlevereaged savers, underleveraged corporates and a healthy banking system whose government happens to have borrowed a hell of a lot of money. But the world has grounds to be scared: with rates at 5% and government debt comfortably above 100% of GDP, servicing that debt costs 6% of GDP at the moment. GDP growth, in the meantime has not touched 6% nominal in a long, long time.
So here's the deal: No matter what happens, the debt is now at a level where its growth has reached escape velocity. Even if Greece were to run zero deficit, ultimately we are heading to default. We can default now or we can default later. Is that a big deal? Frankly, no. 75% of the debt, probably more, is held externally. If JGBs fail to pay coupon, that's a disaster for Japan, since 95% are held domestically. If GGBs fail to pay coupon, it's far less catastrophic. For the debt-deflation spiral to start, you need the debt to be internal.
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